NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL35233431123
CHI27304130128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (CHI) / 7 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 27 2 2
Jalen Johnson S 32 25 6 3
Trae Young S 34 21 3 17
Onyeka Okongwu 29 18 10 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 17 3 3
Luke Kennard 21 7 3 2
Mouhamed Gueye 10 4 0 0
Dyson Daniels S 34 2 7 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 2 0 0
Keaton Wallace 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 27 21 3 2
Josh Giddey S 33 18 13 5
Nikola Vucevic S 34 17 17 9
Matas Buzelis S 32 16 5 3
Kevin Huerter 21 15 0 2
Tre Jones S 31 14 7 9
Patrick Williams 22 12 3 2
Isaac Okoro S 24 10 0 1
Julian Phillips 10 5 0 0
Jalen Smith 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes dunk (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
2 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
9%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
6 Trae Young ATL
9%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
43%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 19.8 7.1 6.6
2 Trae Young ATL 19.3 3.2 8.0
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.0 6.7 3.0
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 17.2 3.2 3.3
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.4 4.9 1.4
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 15.8 6.9 2.0
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 15.1 3.9 1.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.1 3.8 2.2
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI 13.8 9.7 2.6
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.8 6.1 1.8
11 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 3.7 5.7
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.7 4.2 3.0
13 Patrick Williams CHI 10.1 4.0 3.1
14 Jevon Carter CHI 9.4 1.8 1.7
15 Dyson Daniels ATL 8.7 5.1 2.8
16 Luke Kennard ATL 7.7 2.5 2.4
17 Asa Newell ATL 7.4 4.3 0.9
18 Jalen Smith CHI 7.2 4.5 1.2
19 Julian Phillips CHI 6.7 2.9 0.8
20 Vit Krejci ATL 6.4 2.3 0.9
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.3 3.8 1.6
22 Isaac Okoro CHI 5.9 3.1 1.7
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.1 1.6 2.9
24 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 2.8 2.0
25 Noa Essengue CHI 3.4 1.3 0.7
26 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.3 5.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.