NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
124–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL28323430124
PHI33392935136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (PHI) / 7 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 32 7 5
Desmond Bane S 34 24 3 1
Franz Wagner S 36 22 4 4
Anthony Black 30 14 3 2
Jalen Suggs S 21 12 6 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 10 10 2
Goga Bitadze 14 5 3 2
Noah Penda 7 3 2 1
Tyus Jones 10 2 3 2
Jase Richardson 1 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 43 4 8
VJ Edgecombe S 39 26 4 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 25 10 4
Quentin Grimes 26 14 5 3
Eric Gordon 11 8 0 0
Adem Bona S 25 7 4 1
Justin Edwards 19 5 1 1
Jabari Walker S 14 4 5 0
Andre Drummond 23 4 6 1
Hunter Sallis 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 1-foot layup (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
15%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Tyus Jones ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
0%
10 Noah Penda ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.7 3.8 5.5
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI 22.1 5.5 4.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 21.5 4.9 3.3
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 20.9 3.9 4.9
5 Paolo Banchero ORL 17.5 7.9 1.8
6 Desmond Bane ORL 15.0 4.5 3.0
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.3 8.1 1.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.0 4.2 1.9
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.6 3.1 3.0
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.9 3.2 1.6
11 Jase Richardson ORL 7.7 2.2 1.6
12 Jabari Walker PHI 6.9 3.9 1.0
13 Jett Howard ORL 5.8 1.8 1.3
14 Justin Edwards PHI 5.8 3.3 1.9
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.7 6.2 1.0
16 Hunter Sallis PHI 5.5 2.1 1.4
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.2 5.4 0.8
18 Tyus Jones ORL 4.7 1.7 1.8
19 Johni Broome PHI 4.3 2.6 0.4
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.2 3.2 0.4
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.1 3.4 0.6
22 Noah Penda ORL 3.7 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.