NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
127–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL36263332127
SAC27352830120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (SAC) / 8 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 39 51 11 9
Deandre Ayton S 36 22 15 2
Rui Hachimura S 40 18 3 2
Jake LaRavia 33 11 6 5
Marcus Smart S 31 11 3 5
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 9 5 2
Gabe Vincent S 19 3 1 1
Dalton Knecht 13 2 2 0
Chris Manon 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 40 32 4 0
DeMar DeRozan S 40 21 6 3
Russell Westbrook 27 18 6 6
Dennis Schroder S 35 18 2 12
Malik Monk 24 15 1 2
Domantas Sabonis S 31 10 14 3
Keon Ellis S 18 6 2 1
Drew Eubanks 4 0 2 0
Dario Saric 4 0 0 0
Dylan Cardwell 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Ellis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Keon Ellis makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
13%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
5 Dennis Schroder SAC
11%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
8 Isaac Jones SAC
9%
9 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 23.5 5.1 6.1
2 Zach LaVine SAC 21.5 3.4 3.4
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 15.0 8.9 2.9
4 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.6 3.3 1.6
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 13.5 4.1 4.1
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.3 3.7 3.1
7 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 2.1 2.3
8 Gabe Vincent LAL 11.5 1.9 2.9
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.1 8.8 1.5
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.0 2.9 2.1
11 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.0 3.7 1.7
12 Marcus Smart LAL 7.2 1.8 1.4
13 Keon Ellis SAC 6.6 1.6 1.1
14 Dario Saric SAC 6.4 2.4 0.8
15 Bronny James LAL 6.0 2.8 1.6
16 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.5 3.7 1.0
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.1 4.4 1.3
18 Isaac Jones SAC 4.9 2.2 0.9
19 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.5 3.2 1.0
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.4 1.3 0.8
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.3 1.6 1.4
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.9 3.6 0.6
23 Christian Koloko LAL 3.3 3.6 1.0
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.