NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
107–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR23372225107
LAC34213227114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (LAC) / 6 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 33 23 7 5
Jrue Holiday S 34 21 6 7
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 19 5 1
Jerami Grant 29 17 2 0
Donovan Clingan S 24 9 10 3
Blake Wesley 17 6 6 3
Matisse Thybulle 15 5 0 0
Toumani Camara S 33 5 2 4
Yang Hansen 4 2 1 0
Kris Murray 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 35 30 10 4
Ivica Zubac S 35 21 8 3
James Harden S 38 20 6 13
John Collins 26 16 6 1
Kris Dunn 22 9 2 1
Chris Paul 11 6 1 2
Brook Lopez 13 5 3 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 4 2 0
Nicolas Batum 15 3 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 24 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
15%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
11%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
10%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
10 Jerami Grant POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 18.8 4.6 1.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 18.6 3.7 2.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.9 4.3 2.4
4 Deni Avdija POR 17.7 5.9 3.3
5 James Harden LAC 15.4 4.1 8.2
6 Jrue Holiday POR 14.8 4.4 6.3
7 John Collins LAC 12.0 5.0 1.3
8 Toumani Camara POR 11.3 5.2 2.5
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.7 6.7 2.8
10 Brook Lopez LAC 9.5 3.8 1.2
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.8 2.3 1.2
12 Donovan Clingan POR 8.5 7.4 1.2
13 Kris Murray POR 7.9 3.2 1.2
14 Chris Paul LAC 6.8 2.9 4.8
15 Blake Wesley POR 6.3 2.8 3.1
16 Yang Hansen POR 5.8 2.8 0.9
17 Kris Dunn LAC 5.5 2.4 1.6
18 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 5.0 4.1 0.8
19 Cam Christie LAC 4.9 1.8 0.9
20 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.8 0.6
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 3.3 0.9
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 2.5 0.7
24 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 3.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.