NBA games

TOR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
129–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32342538129
DAL32323936139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DAL) / 8 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 34 33 11 6
Brandon Ingram S 32 22 6 3
RJ Barrett S 28 16 4 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 16 1 3
Immanuel Quickley S 32 14 5 5
Gradey Dick 13 10 2 1
Jamal Shead 16 6 0 8
Ochai Agbaji 22 5 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 19 4 8 4
Jamison Battle 7 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 25 10 3
D'Angelo Russell 29 24 5 6
Cooper Flagg S 29 22 4 4
Max Christie 27 17 2 2
P.J. Washington S 32 17 7 5
Naji Marshall 25 12 6 3
Klay Thompson S 20 10 4 3
Caleb Martin 12 4 1 0
Dereck Lively II S 21 4 7 4
Dwight Powell 2 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
8 Cooper Flagg DAL
8%
9 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
10 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
31%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.5 6.3 3.6
2 RJ Barrett TOR 19.8 5.1 3.6
3 Anthony Davis DAL 18.9 9.5 2.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 16.8 8.0 5.0
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.4 3.7 5.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.8 5.8 2.9
7 Cooper Flagg DAL 14.0 6.0 3.1
8 Gradey Dick TOR 10.1 3.5 1.2
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.0 7.5 1.7
10 Naji Marshall DAL 8.8 3.1 2.2
11 Klay Thompson DAL 8.4 2.3 0.9
12 Max Christie DAL 8.3 1.7 1.6
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.7 5.4 1.9
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.7 2.2 1.1
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.8 6.4 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.8 4.2
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.3 2.2 3.6
18 D'Angelo Russell DAL 6.2 2.4 3.1
19 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.8 3.4 0.9
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.4 1.9 1.9
21 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.3 2.9 1.8
22 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 1.7 0.6
23 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.5 1.1
24 Miles Kelly DAL 4.4 1.1 1.4
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.2 3.0 0.8
26 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.7 3.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.