NBA games

IND @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND28321733110
MIN28302828114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIN) / 6 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 33 10 8
Aaron Nesmith S 35 18 8 2
Tony Bradley 25 12 5 1
RayJ Dennis 27 12 2 5
Obi Toppin 17 9 6 0
Ben Sheppard S 32 6 6 2
Isaiah Jackson S 15 6 3 2
Jarace Walker 26 5 7 4
Jay Huff S 16 5 0 0
Quenton Jackson 10 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 31 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 17 2 3
Naz Reid 23 16 10 2
Rudy Gobert S 34 14 18 1
Jaden McDaniels S 35 11 5 1
Mike Conley 25 6 1 4
Jaylen Clark 15 6 2 0
Bones Hyland 19 5 1 2
Anthony Edwards S 3 5 1 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 10 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 12-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 James Wiseman IND
11%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
8%
10 Jarace Walker IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 22.3 6.8 4.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.5 5.0 3.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 19.3 5.8 4.1
4 Jarace Walker IND 12.6 5.3 3.5
5 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 10.3 3.6 3.7
6 Ben Sheppard IND 10.0 4.8 2.3
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.8 4.1 1.3
8 Leonard Miller MIN 9.8 4.9 1.7
9 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 4.1 2.3
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.3 3.0 1.3
11 Johnny Juzang MIN 8.8 3.8 0.9
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.7 7.1 1.5
13 Naz Reid MIN 7.7 3.6 1.2
14 RayJ Dennis IND 7.5 1.8 3.4
15 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 7.5 3.3 2.6
16 Joan Beringer MIN 6.8 5.5 0.7
17 Bones Hyland MIN 6.6 2.4 2.1
18 Jay Huff IND 5.5 3.1 0.7
19 James Wiseman IND 5.4 3.2 0.8
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 2.3 1.0
21 Mike Conley MIN 4.1 1.9 1.8
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.5 3.0 0.7
23 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.