NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
139–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31204444139
WSH30322625113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (WSH) / 7 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 35 38 13 13
Miles Bridges S 32 22 4 3
Collin Sexton S 33 20 2 3
Kon Knueppel S 35 20 6 2
Sion James 20 13 0 3
Moussa Diabate 23 12 10 1
Tidjane Salaun 16 4 7 1
Pat Connaughton 2 4 0 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 22 4 5 1
Mason Plumlee 3 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 30 24 6 5
Alex Sarr S 25 23 4 5
Tre Johnson 29 16 4 2
Khris Middleton S 20 11 3 1
Cam Whitmore 21 10 4 2
Kyshawn George S 25 6 8 5
Tristan Vukcevic 11 6 2 0
Will Riley 9 5 1 0
Justin Champagnie 6 4 3 0
Bub Carrington S 26 4 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 6-foot hook shot (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyshawn George WSH
13%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
5 Khris Middleton WSH
10%
6 Collin Sexton CHA
10%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
8 Liam McNeeley CHA
9%
9 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
48%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
19%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.1 4.8 6.8
2 Kyshawn George WSH 22.0 6.9 3.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 19.7 8.2 3.3
4 Collin Sexton CHA 17.7 2.7 5.0
5 CJ McCollum WSH 15.1 4.1 3.6
6 Khris Middleton WSH 14.0 5.5 3.6
7 Alex Sarr WSH 13.4 9.3 2.8
8 Kon Knueppel CHA 13.0 3.9 2.4
9 Tre Johnson WSH 11.5 4.0 2.2
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.0 6.4 1.0
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.8 7.5 1.1
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.1 5.7 1.8
13 Cam Whitmore WSH 9.0 2.7 1.2
14 Tre Mann CHA 8.8 3.2 2.8
15 Corey Kispert WSH 8.8 3.3 2.2
16 Bub Carrington WSH 7.1 2.5 2.4
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.8 5.6 1.4
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.3 2.4 1.2
19 Will Riley WSH 5.8 1.8 1.3
20 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.4 2.1 1.4
21 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.4 3.4 1.1
22 Sion James CHA 5.1 2.5 1.1
23 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.6 0.9 1.2
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.8 2.5 0.6
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.9 0.8
26 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.