NBA games

NY @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
107–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27272726107
MIA24333127115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIA) / 7 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIA
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 37 5 7
Mikal Bridges S 37 20 5 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 15 18 2
OG Anunoby S 37 14 6 1
Jordan Clarkson 15 8 3 2
Josh Hart 29 6 5 5
Tyler Kolek 10 5 1 0
Guerschon Yabusele 16 2 6 0
Ariel Hukporti S 10 0 2 1
Landry Shamet 16 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 29 7 3
Bam Adebayo S 38 19 13 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 17 5 5
Simone Fontecchio 19 14 4 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 9 5 2
Davion Mitchell S 24 9 1 6
Dru Smith 18 6 2 0
Nikola Jovic 25 6 5 5
Kel'el Ware S 22 5 8 0
Pelle Larsson 5 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ariel Hukporti assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
8 Ariel Hukporti NY
7%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Mohamed Diawara NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.7 3.9 4.5
2 Norman Powell MIA 18.5 4.2 3.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 15.8 9.3 2.3
4 Kel'el Ware MIA 15.4 9.9 1.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 14.7 6.0 2.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.5 5.1 2.7
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.0 6.9 2.5
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.4 4.2 3.2
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.6 4.1 2.8
10 Andrew Wiggins MIA 9.2 2.8 1.7
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.9 2.4 1.4
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 8.9 2.7 4.1
13 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.7 3.3 1.3
14 Jahmir Young MIA 7.2 1.9 1.8
15 Tyler Kolek NY 6.9 2.0 2.3
16 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.9 3.4 2.2
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.6 1.6 0.8
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.4 1.6 1.4
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 5.0 3.1 1.0
20 Dru Smith MIA 5.0 2.0 1.6
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.4 4.5 0.8
22 Trey Jemison III NY 4.1 3.3 0.7
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.8 2.0 0.6
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.8 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.