NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
113–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31252829113
CLE29362132118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (CLE) / 6 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 40 14 9
AJ Green S 31 20 2 2
Ryan Rollins S 34 14 4 8
Myles Turner S 31 13 6 2
Bobby Portis 23 10 8 1
Taurean Prince 31 8 3 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 28 6 0 2
Jericho Sims 8 2 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 0 0 0
Amir Coffey 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 24 3 4
Evan Mobley S 34 23 8 6
Sam Merrill S 30 17 3 1
De'Andre Hunter S 27 16 4 2
Lonzo Ball 23 11 6 5
Jarrett Allen S 26 8 11 1
Larry Nance Jr. 12 5 5 1
Jaylon Tyson 15 5 0 1
Craig Porter Jr. 16 5 3 1
Dean Wade 23 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 20-foot two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Myles Turner MIL
8%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.5 12.5 5.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.9 3.9 4.6
3 Evan Mobley CLE 18.2 7.3 3.9
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE 17.6 3.8 2.0
5 Sam Merrill CLE 16.1 2.9 2.9
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.1 2.3 2.1
7 Ryan Rollins MIL 11.7 3.5 2.5
8 AJ Green MIL 10.8 3.1 1.7
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 10.5 6.1 1.8
10 Myles Turner MIL 10.0 4.8 1.7
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.6 3.6 2.3
12 Dean Wade CLE 8.2 3.9 1.5
13 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.9 3.1 2.0
14 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 7.6 4.3 1.7
15 Tyrese Proctor CLE 7.3 1.5 2.3
16 Bobby Portis MIL 7.0 4.7 1.0
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.2 1.9 1.2
18 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.9 3.0 4.6
19 Amir Coffey MIL 3.9 1.7 0.8
20 Pete Nance MIL 3.9 1.6 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.7 1.6 0.8
22 Luke Travers CLE 3.6 1.8 0.9
23 Gary Harris MIL 3.4 1.2 1.1
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.9 1.7 0.6
25 Jericho Sims MIL 2.8 2.1 0.9
26 Mark Sears MIL 2.7 0.7 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.