NBA games

BOS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
113–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS33252332113
DET24363425119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DET) / 6 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DET
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 41 6 4
Payton Pritchard S 34 21 10 4
Derrick White S 37 15 4 3
Anfernee Simons 23 12 1 0
Josh Minott 14 10 1 1
Sam Hauser 24 8 4 0
Neemias Queta S 26 4 6 3
Luka Garza 13 2 2 1
Hugo Gonzalez S 18 0 1 0
Chris Boucher 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 25 3 8
Jalen Duren S 28 24 18 1
Ausar Thompson S 36 21 12 3
Tobias Harris S 35 18 8 4
Isaiah Stewart 21 9 6 1
Duncan Robinson S 30 8 4 1
Javonte Green 17 7 3 1
Ronald Holland II 19 7 1 1
Daniss Jenkins 10 0 0 1
Chaz Lanier 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Derrick White BOS
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Tobias Harris DET
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.4 5.3 8.7
2 Derrick White BOS 21.8 5.2 5.6
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.0 4.3 3.2
4 Anfernee Simons BOS 16.4 3.2 2.8
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.8 4.3 4.5
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.2 6.1 2.7
7 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 6.2 3.2
8 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 2.4 1.4
9 Jalen Duren DET 10.4 7.3 1.2
10 Ronald Holland II DET 10.4 3.5 2.8
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 10.3 2.1 3.3
12 Josh Minott BOS 9.4 4.8 1.2
13 Duncan Robinson DET 9.1 3.0 1.7
14 Neemias Queta BOS 8.5 7.2 0.9
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.2 4.8 0.8
16 Chris Boucher BOS 7.3 5.2 0.7
17 Paul Reed DET 7.2 6.0 1.3
18 Chaz Lanier DET 6.4 1.8 1.4
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.0 3.0 1.0
20 Luka Garza BOS 5.9 4.5 0.8
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.7 3.3 2.2
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.6 4.1 1.3
23 Javonte Green DET 4.6 2.4 0.8
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.4 4.1 0.6
25 Bobi Klintman DET 3.4 2.0 0.9
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.