NBA games

BKN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
107–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN24243326107
SA31381930118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (SA) / 6 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SA
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 32 41 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 15 6 4
Nic Claxton S 26 10 5 2
Jalen Wilson 15 9 1 1
Terance Mann S 31 7 6 3
Noah Clowney 24 7 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 6 3 1
Ziaire Williams 13 5 1 0
Tyrese Martin 12 4 2 3
Egor Demin 19 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 36 31 14 4
Dylan Harper 29 20 6 8
Keldon Johnson 29 19 6 1
Devin Vassell S 35 16 3 1
Stephon Castle S 30 13 6 3
Julian Champagnie S 31 13 6 2
Harrison Barnes S 25 4 3 1
Carter Bryant 5 2 0 0
Bismack Biyombo 12 0 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
15%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Ben Saraf BKN
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
8%
8 Terance Mann BKN
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.4 11.7 4.1
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.7 5.0 7.7
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 19.6 5.7 3.2
4 Cam Thomas BKN 19.6 2.8 4.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.7 4.5 3.1
6 Dylan Harper SA 12.3 2.8 4.1
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.2 4.9 1.4
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.0 7.5 2.9
9 Egor Demin BKN 11.3 4.8 2.4
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.2 3.6 2.0
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.6 2.3 1.0
12 Terance Mann BKN 7.6 2.0 1.0
13 Harrison Barnes SA 7.3 2.6 2.4
14 Noah Clowney BKN 7.2 2.8 1.3
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.1 4.4 1.7
16 Ben Saraf BKN 6.6 2.0 4.1
17 Carter Bryant SA 6.3 2.6 1.3
18 David Jones Garcia SA 5.6 2.5 2.3
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.2 2.4 1.4
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.5 1.1 0.5
21 Nolan Traore BKN 4.4 1.0 1.4
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.9 1.4 1.3
23 Harrison Ingram SA 3.9 2.4 0.8
24 Riley Minix SA 2.8 1.3 1.2
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.