NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
111–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28262928111
DEN34372933133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DEN) / 6 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 31 3 7
Grayson Allen S 33 17 4 5
Dillon Brooks S 31 15 3 2
Ryan Dunn S 23 9 7 2
Royce O'Neale 28 7 4 2
Khaman Maluach 13 6 2 1
Collin Gillespie 14 6 2 1
Nick Richards 10 4 4 0
Nigel Hayes-Davis 14 4 5 2
Oso Ighodaro S 23 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 32 23 6 5
Christian Braun S 31 20 3 3
Aaron Gordon S 25 17 2 1
Cameron Johnson S 25 15 4 1
Nikola Jokic S 32 14 14 15
Jonas Valanciunas 13 12 7 1
Bruce Brown 22 11 3 3
Peyton Watson 20 7 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 4 0 0
DaRon Holmes II 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
33%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.1 3.7 6.0
2 Aaron Gordon DEN 22.2 5.9 2.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.0 3.3 5.0
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 19.0 8.5 6.2
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 16.5 3.3 2.9
6 Grayson Allen PHX 13.7 3.4 3.7
7 Christian Braun DEN 10.9 3.4 2.3
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.5 3.9 3.2
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.9 5.4 1.5
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.8 3.6 2.6
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.7 2.9 2.0
12 Peyton Watson DEN 8.4 3.7 1.9
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.1 2.8 1.6
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 7.1 2.0 1.2
15 Khaman Maluach PHX 7.0 3.9 0.9
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.9 4.3 1.6
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 6.0 1.6
18 Nick Richards PHX 6.6 3.3 0.7
19 Julian Strawther DEN 6.0 2.8 0.7
20 Bruce Brown DEN 5.8 2.8 1.7
21 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 5.4 2.9 0.9
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.5 1.5 1.2
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.4 2.0 0.7
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.3 0.5
25 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.4 0.9 0.4
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 0.9 0.7
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.