NBA games

IND @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
103–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND21313219103
MEM23374325128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MEM) / 5 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MEM
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 26 3 4
Aaron Nesmith S 31 15 1 1
Obi Toppin 26 13 9 2
Pascal Siakam S 26 13 6 6
Ben Sheppard S 24 9 5 3
RayJ Dennis 28 7 2 6
Jarace Walker 27 6 7 3
Tony Bradley 7 5 0 0
James Wiseman S 20 4 4 0
Isaiah Jackson 12 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward 24 27 6 4
Ja Morant S 27 19 3 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 17 2 1
Javon Small 21 16 2 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 23 10 4 5
Santi Aldama 21 9 8 1
John Konchar 25 9 5 2
Jock Landale S 26 8 8 1
Cam Spencer 16 8 6 3
Jaylen Wells S 27 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Sheppard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Ben Sheppard makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
17%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
16%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
12%
5 Jock Landale MEM
11%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
10%
8 Isaiah Jackson IND
10%
9 Obi Toppin IND
0%
10 Jarace Walker IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
36%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.4 6.1 1.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 19.8 5.9 3.9
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.6 5.3 1.9
4 Jarace Walker IND 15.1 5.4 4.3
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.6 2.8 2.5
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 13.2 3.7 3.4
7 Cedric Coward MEM 11.2 3.8 1.7
8 Javon Small MEM 10.1 2.3 5.4
9 Taelon Peter IND 9.8 3.8 2.8
10 Santi Aldama MEM 9.4 6.4 1.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 3.6 2.6
12 Jock Landale MEM 9.2 5.4 1.0
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.9 3.2 1.5
14 Cam Spencer MEM 7.6 1.7 2.7
15 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 7.1 3.9 1.4
16 RayJ Dennis IND 6.7 1.4 2.5
17 GG Jackson MEM 6.7 2.7 0.8
18 Jay Huff IND 6.4 3.6 1.1
19 PJ Hall MEM 6.0 3.9 0.7
20 James Wiseman IND 4.8 2.8 0.6
21 John Konchar MEM 4.1 3.5 0.6
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.0 3.0 0.8
23 Tony Bradley IND 3.3 2.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.