NBA games

CHA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
121–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29293825121
PHI36252539125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (PHI) / 6 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHI
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 34 27 10 8
Collin Sexton S 30 21 2 7
Miles Bridges S 35 18 9 7
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 26 14 7 1
Kon Knueppel 30 14 3 1
Sion James 19 10 2 1
Moussa Diabate 17 6 2 0
Brandon Miller S 9 4 0 1
Tre Mann 22 4 5 2
Tidjane Salaun 13 3 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 28 6 9
Quentin Grimes 30 24 3 4
Joel Embiid S 20 20 2 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 19 1 1
VJ Edgecombe S 40 15 6 8
Justin Edwards 12 9 1 0
Andre Drummond 16 7 13 2
Dominick Barlow S 16 2 4 0
Adem Bona 12 1 0 1
Jabari Walker 15 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 1-foot dunk (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 VJ Edgecombe PHI
13%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 Liam McNeeley CHA
9%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.2 3.5 5.3
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI 23.6 5.2 4.1
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.8 4.0 5.9
4 Brandon Miller CHA 17.8 2.3 4.8
5 Miles Bridges CHA 17.0 8.2 2.8
6 Collin Sexton CHA 15.7 2.6 4.5
7 Kon Knueppel CHA 11.9 3.8 2.4
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.5 4.1 2.0
9 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.0 6.9 1.1
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.0 6.1 1.6
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.0 7.2 1.0
12 Jabari Walker PHI 8.2 3.7 1.1
13 Tre Mann CHA 8.1 2.7 2.8
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.8 5.6 1.2
15 Justin Edwards PHI 5.5 3.2 2.3
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.2 2.0 1.3
17 Johni Broome PHI 4.8 3.5 0.6
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.5 3.9 0.8
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.3 3.7 0.9
20 Sion James CHA 3.5 2.2 0.8
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.3 1.0 0.3
22 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.7 2.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.