NBA games

OKC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31293918117
ATL26292520100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (ATL) / 8 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ATL
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 27 31 11 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 30 5 5
Ajay Mitchell 29 14 7 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 14 10 2
Aaron Wiggins 27 9 5 2
Jaylin Williams 18 7 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 27 5 2 1
Chris Youngblood 11 4 1 0
Cason Wallace S 26 3 3 3
Ousmane Dieng 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 17 3 2
Trae Young S 30 15 4 10
Vit Krejci 22 13 2 1
Asa Newell 25 12 10 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 11 12 4
Mouhamed Gueye S 23 11 6 2
Dyson Daniels S 27 8 4 1
Luke Kennard 21 5 0 3
Keaton Wallace 12 5 1 1
Jacob Toppin 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
11%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.7 5.2 5.7
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.9 8.9 2.9
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 20.4 3.8 3.4
4 Trae Young ATL 18.9 3.2 7.3
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 17.1 3.4 3.5
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.5 4.5 3.5
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.6 5.2 1.6
8 Cason Wallace OKC 10.9 4.8 4.4
9 Ousmane Dieng OKC 10.3 4.5 2.8
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 9.9 7.1 2.5
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.1 4.2 1.9
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.0 3.7 1.6
13 Chris Youngblood OKC 8.8 2.6 1.3
14 Dyson Daniels ATL 8.7 6.0 3.2
15 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 8.3 5.2 1.5
16 Jacob Toppin ATL 7.6 2.5 1.7
17 Luke Kennard ATL 7.4 3.0 2.1
18 Branden Carlson OKC 7.2 3.6 0.9
19 Asa Newell ATL 6.6 3.9 0.8
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 3.4 1.6
21 Vit Krejci ATL 5.8 2.4 0.7
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.3 1.8 3.0
23 Caleb Houstan ATL 5.1 1.2 0.5
24 N'Faly Dante ATL 4.0 5.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.