NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
110–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29233127110
ORL3019311898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (ORL) / 6 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 32 21 8 3
Jalen Smith 17 16 3 1
Ayo Dosunmu 27 15 1 2
Nikola Vucevic S 31 15 8 2
Tre Jones S 29 13 5 8
Patrick Williams 29 12 5 4
Kevin Huerter 29 11 7 6
Julian Phillips 10 4 2 0
Matas Buzelis S 12 3 3 0
Dalen Terry 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 24 10 1
Anthony Black 30 19 5 1
Franz Wagner S 34 17 7 1
Desmond Bane S 31 14 5 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 8 13 1
Tristan da Silva 24 8 3 1
Jase Richardson 8 3 0 0
Goga Bitadze 17 3 9 2
Jonathan Isaac 6 2 1 0
Tyus Jones S 14 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes two point shot (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
14%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
13%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Tre Jones CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
21%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 22.4 4.3 3.9
2 Josh Giddey CHI 18.1 6.4 6.8
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.4 4.7 1.4
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 17.3 7.4 2.0
5 Desmond Bane ORL 15.1 4.2 3.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.8 4.0 1.9
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.6 7.9 2.2
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI 12.1 9.7 2.4
9 Tre Jones CHI 10.7 3.2 4.8
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.6 3.5 2.0
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.9 2.7 3.6
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.7 3.6 1.9
13 Jevon Carter CHI 9.6 1.7 1.5
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.8 3.6 2.6
15 Jase Richardson ORL 7.6 2.5 1.9
16 Jett Howard ORL 7.4 1.9 1.5
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.2 6.5 1.1
18 Isaac Okoro CHI 5.8 2.6 1.7
19 Jalen Smith CHI 5.8 4.4 1.1
20 Tyus Jones ORL 5.5 1.8 2.3
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.8 3.0 2.2
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 3.5 0.6
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.1 2.3 0.5
24 Jamal Cain ORL 3.8 1.5 0.4
25 Noa Essengue CHI 3.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.