NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
102–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX33232125102
LAC34383423129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (LAC) / 5 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 27 21 3 2
Devin Booker S 28 18 3 7
Collin Gillespie 28 13 5 5
Grayson Allen S 29 12 1 5
Royce O'Neale 28 11 4 1
Oso Ighodaro S 20 9 6 1
Nigel Hayes-Davis 21 7 2 0
Ryan Dunn S 17 6 5 0
Nick Richards 9 2 1 0
Mark Williams 14 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 28 30 7 7
Kawhi Leonard S 33 27 5 5
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 17 4 2
Kris Dunn 21 14 2 1
John Collins 24 10 6 2
Ivica Zubac S 25 8 5 4
Brook Lopez 18 6 7 1
Bradley Beal S 20 6 1 2
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 5 6 1 0
Nicolas Batum 8 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
3 Devin Booker PHX
9%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Khaman Maluach PHX
8%
9 James Harden LAC
8%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.2 3.8 5.6
2 James Harden LAC 16.6 3.4 7.7
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 16.3 3.1 2.8
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 14.2 2.9 2.1
5 Grayson Allen PHX 14.0 3.6 3.6
6 John Collins LAC 11.5 4.5 1.2
7 Brook Lopez LAC 10.9 3.3 1.2
8 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.5 2.8 2.3
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.5 6.6 2.6
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.6 5.0 1.7
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.5 3.5 2.8
12 Collin Gillespie PHX 8.4 3.6 2.5
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 7.9 1.8 1.0
14 Chris Paul LAC 7.3 2.6 4.4
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.3 1.8 1.3
16 Nick Richards PHX 7.2 3.8 0.7
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.9 6.2 1.8
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 6.7 4.0 0.9
19 Cam Christie LAC 5.5 1.4 1.1
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 5.0 3.9 0.9
21 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.5 2.9 0.9
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 3.3 1.0
23 Kris Dunn LAC 4.0 2.3 1.5
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.1 0.9
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.5 1.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.