NBA games

UTAH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
104–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH24223028104
SAC31182927105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (SAC) / 5 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SAC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 33 4 1
Keyonte George S 34 18 2 10
Brice Sensabaugh 22 15 4 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 20 10 5 3
Kyle Filipowski S 25 10 6 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 24 9 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic 18 4 11 2
Walker Kessler S 30 3 9 2
Taylor Hendricks 17 2 3 1
Ace Bailey 13 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 37 31 2 1
Malik Monk 21 20 1 3
Dennis Schroder S 33 17 5 3
Domantas Sabonis S 37 12 12 1
DeMar DeRozan S 37 7 3 6
Russell Westbrook 17 7 1 4
Dario Saric 16 5 2 2
Keon Ellis 17 4 3 1
Isaac Jones S 14 2 2 1
Drew Eubanks 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Svi Mykhailiuk · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Drew Eubanks SAC
9%
7 Dennis Schroder SAC
9%
8 Isaac Jones SAC
8%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 19.9 3.5 3.9
2 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 18.3 3.6 1.9
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.0 4.7 4.5
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.0 3.6 6.0
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 15.3 8.4 3.3
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC 15.1 4.7 3.9
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 13.4 5.3 2.1
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 13.2 4.9 1.9
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.9 3.5 3.1
10 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 11.7 3.9 5.0
11 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 11.5 6.6 3.0
12 Malik Monk SAC 10.8 2.2 2.0
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.3 1.9 2.4
14 Keon Ellis SAC 7.2 1.4 1.0
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.1 3.1 1.7
16 Cody Williams UTAH 6.5 2.3 0.9
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.2 2.8 1.0
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 6.2 4.3 1.2
19 Dario Saric SAC 6.1 2.7 0.9
20 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.2 3.5 1.1
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.8 1.8 1.6
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.6 4.2 0.7
23 Isaac Jones SAC 4.3 1.9 0.7
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.2 0.8 0.4
25 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.6 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.