NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28283528119
POR28413436139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (POR) / 7 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 27 35 6 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 24 16 8 3
Jimmy Butler III S 27 14 3 4
Draymond Green S 21 12 3 5
Brandin Podziemski 22 8 5 0
Will Richard 25 7 2 2
Moses Moody 21 7 2 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 17 6 4 1
Quinten Post S 16 5 4 1
Pat Spencer 11 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 29 26 5 6
Jerami Grant 28 22 2 2
Toumani Camara S 33 19 7 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 25 17 4 1
Donovan Clingan S 22 14 8 2
Kris Murray 27 13 1 1
Jrue Holiday S 28 12 5 11
Matisse Thybulle 15 10 2 0
Blake Wesley 20 4 2 4
Yang Hansen 7 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 1-foot layup (Donovan Clingan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
15%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Toumani Camara POR
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
23%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 4.5 4.9
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.3 4.4 3.8
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.4 4.5 2.9
4 Jerami Grant POR 19.4 5.2 1.7
5 Deni Avdija POR 16.0 6.4 2.8
6 Jrue Holiday POR 15.5 4.7 6.1
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.6 4.9 4.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.7 3.6 3.4
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.4 3.2 1.8
10 Toumani Camara POR 9.7 4.9 2.6
11 Draymond Green GS 9.1 4.2 4.9
12 Donovan Clingan POR 8.1 8.1 1.2
13 Will Richard GS 8.0 3.1 1.8
14 Pat Spencer GS 7.5 2.5 2.4
15 Quinten Post GS 7.2 3.0 1.2
16 Kris Murray POR 7.2 3.6 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 7.1 2.7 0.7
18 Blake Wesley POR 7.0 3.1 3.0
19 Yang Hansen POR 6.9 3.5 1.1
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.1 5.5 1.2
21 Gui Santos GS 4.6 2.2 1.3
22 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 2.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.