NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN40233116110
LAL36324020128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (LAL) / 7 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 31 4 5
Julius Randle S 30 26 9 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 13 0 4
Jaden McDaniels S 27 10 2 0
Bones Hyland 16 9 0 2
Jaylen Clark 13 9 3 1
Naz Reid 23 5 5 2
Joan Beringer 5 2 4 0
Rudy Gobert S 28 2 7 2
Leonard Miller 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 49 11 8
Austin Reaves S 37 25 7 11
Rui Hachimura S 32 23 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 31 15 8 0
Jake LaRavia 28 6 0 1
Gabe Vincent S 24 5 2 5
Marcus Smart 21 3 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 2 7 0
Dalton Knecht 7 0 1 0
Christian Koloko 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
9%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
8 Joan Beringer MIN
6%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 34.0 8.1 7.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.1 4.9 2.7
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.8 4.6 5.2
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.7 6.1 3.7
5 Leonard Miller MIN 13.5 6.1 2.1
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.1 3.2 1.8
7 Rob Dillingham MIN 12.9 2.3 5.8
8 Gabe Vincent LAL 12.9 1.7 2.6
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 12.4 3.8 4.6
10 Johnny Juzang MIN 11.1 3.7 1.0
11 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.4 8.4 1.5
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.5 4.1 1.6
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.2 3.4 1.6
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.9 6.6 1.4
15 Naz Reid MIN 8.1 3.1 1.0
16 Marcus Smart LAL 7.8 1.7 1.4
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.7 3.0 2.2
18 Joan Beringer MIN 6.7 4.8 0.6
19 Bones Hyland MIN 6.7 2.4 2.1
20 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 6.6 3.1 2.3
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 5.7 1.2
22 Bronny James LAL 6.0 2.5 1.6
23 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.9 3.6 1.5
24 Mike Conley MIN 4.7 1.7 2.1
25 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 2.1 1.1
26 Christian Koloko LAL 2.8 3.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.