NBA games

WSH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
117–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH28303326117
DAL35172629107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (DAL) / 4 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DAL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 35 34 11 4
Tre Johnson 26 17 3 2
Alex Sarr S 26 14 9 5
Marvin Bagley III 15 10 4 1
Khris Middleton S 30 9 4 2
Cam Whitmore 16 8 3 1
Corey Kispert 21 7 4 4
Bub Carrington S 26 7 3 3
CJ McCollum S 33 6 2 5
Will Riley 4 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 27 13 4
Cooper Flagg S 35 18 5 6
P.J. Washington S 39 18 9 1
Jaden Hardy 11 9 1 0
Max Christie 29 9 1 2
Dereck Lively II S 19 8 6 2
Klay Thompson S 17 8 4 0
Naji Marshall 25 7 6 4
Ryan Nembhard 10 2 1 0
D'Angelo Russell 9 1 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes technical free throw"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
14%
2 Kyshawn George WSH
13%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
9 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis DAL 18.3 8.1 2.0
2 Kyshawn George WSH 16.8 6.6 2.7
3 CJ McCollum WSH 15.3 5.1 2.6
4 Khris Middleton WSH 14.4 6.0 3.8
5 P.J. Washington DAL 13.4 4.9 2.8
6 Cooper Flagg DAL 12.3 5.8 2.6
7 Alex Sarr WSH 10.5 9.2 1.6
8 Tre Johnson WSH 9.4 4.4 1.9
9 Klay Thompson DAL 8.7 1.9 1.0
10 Naji Marshall DAL 8.7 2.8 2.0
11 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.5 2.7 1.0
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.4 6.4 1.6
13 Corey Kispert WSH 8.2 3.1 1.7
14 Max Christie DAL 7.9 1.7 1.7
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.6 2.4 1.3
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.0 2.3 1.1
17 D'Angelo Russell DAL 6.8 2.7 3.7
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.5 2.4 4.8
19 Will Riley WSH 6.2 1.7 1.4
20 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.1 6.3 1.6
21 Bub Carrington WSH 6.0 2.3 1.8
22 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.3 3.6 0.9
23 Dwight Powell DAL 5.1 3.8 1.2
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 3.6 1.1 1.0
25 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.1 3.6 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.