SA @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
120–116
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 30 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 13 | 120 |
| NO | 27 | 31 | 22 | 27 | 9 | 116 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 5 (NO) / 6 (SA) games this season
SA
away
home
NO
67%
33%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama S | 32 | 29 | 11 | 2 |
| Devin Vassell S | 40 | 23 | 5 | 1 |
| Stephon Castle S | 33 | 16 | 6 | 6 |
| Luke Kornet | 35 | 14 | 12 | 4 |
| Dylan Harper | 26 | 13 | 5 | 3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes S | 34 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Julian Champagnie S | 36 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Zion Williamson ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
14%
2
Stephon Castle
SA
14%
3
Jordan Poole
NO
13%
4
Trey Murphy III
NO
12%
5
Herbert Jones
NO
11%
6
Devin Vassell
SA
11%
7
Victor Wembanyama
SA
10%
8
Julian Champagnie
SA
8%
9
Harrison Barnes
SA
7%
10
Keldon Johnson
SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
53%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
13%
Layup
24%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA | 24.5 | 10.9 | 3.8 |
| 2 | Stephon Castle | SA | 21.5 | 4.5 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 17.8 | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| 4 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 15.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| 5 | Jordan Poole | NO | 14.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| 6 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 14.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Devin Vassell | SA | 13.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 |
| 8 | Keldon Johnson | SA | 13.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 9 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 12.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 10 | Dylan Harper | SA | 11.4 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Herbert Jones | NO | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 12 | Luke Kornet | SA | 10.3 | 6.8 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 10.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 14 | Julian Champagnie | SA | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Carter Bryant | SA | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 16 | Harrison Barnes | SA | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| 17 | David Jones Garcia | SA | 5.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 18 | Micah Peavy | NO | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Hunter Dickinson | NO | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 20 | Harrison Ingram | SA | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 22 | Riley Minix | SA | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 23 | Bismack Biyombo | SA | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 24 | Bryce McGowens | NO | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 25 | Trey Alexander | NO | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.