NBA games

MIA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
146–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA44422832146
MEM25222938114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (MEM) / 7 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MEM
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 28 24 5 4
Nikola Jovic 27 20 6 4
Kel'el Ware S 23 19 9 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 17 10 6
Norman Powell S 25 15 6 2
Simone Fontecchio 23 14 4 2
Andrew Wiggins S 24 10 7 3
Dru Smith 21 10 3 5
Pelle Larsson 8 8 2 0
Keshad Johnson 8 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 21 19 3 1
Cedric Coward 22 16 2 2
Santi Aldama 20 13 8 0
Ja Morant S 22 12 2 6
Javon Small 22 9 2 8
Jaylen Wells S 22 9 4 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 8 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 23 7 3 6
PJ Hall 14 7 3 0
GG Jackson 16 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
12%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Jock Landale MEM
10%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
10%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
35%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 20.0 4.1 3.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.0 5.5 2.1
3 Kel'el Ware MIA 16.6 10.8 1.5
4 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.9 2.8 2.9
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 14.0 4.0 3.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 13.5 7.7 2.3
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.6 3.7 2.9
8 Cedric Coward MEM 10.9 4.0 1.7
9 Javon Small MEM 10.4 2.5 5.0
10 Jock Landale MEM 10.3 5.4 1.1
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.0 3.1 4.2
12 Andrew Wiggins MIA 9.9 2.5 1.7
13 Santi Aldama MEM 9.4 6.4 2.0
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.7 3.2 1.5
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.7 3.9 2.9
16 Jahmir Young MIA 8.7 1.9 2.2
17 Cam Spencer MEM 8.2 1.8 2.8
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 6.8 3.9 1.4
19 Keshad Johnson MIA 6.6 3.5 2.5
20 GG Jackson MEM 6.6 2.5 0.6
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.1 1.8 1.9
22 Dru Smith MIA 5.1 2.1 1.5
23 PJ Hall MEM 4.7 3.6 0.5
24 John Konchar MEM 4.2 3.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.