NBA games

DET @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
115–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32312428115
HOU33233025111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (HOU) / 5 (DET) games this season
DET away
home HOU
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 21 7 9
Ausar Thompson S 24 19 2 4
Duncan Robinson S 38 17 3 2
Paul Reed 19 13 9 1
Ronald Holland II 13 11 5 3
Tobias Harris S 40 9 8 4
Javonte Green 20 7 4 2
Jalen Duren S 12 6 6 0
Daniss Jenkins 5 5 0 0
Isaiah Stewart 17 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 37 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 38 17 7 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 11 6 2
Steven Adams S 25 11 10 0
Josh Okogie 17 10 4 1
Amen Thompson S 30 10 4 1
Reed Sheppard 20 9 2 1
Tari Eason 28 4 5 2
Clint Capela 4 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Steven Adams HOU
7%
9 Aaron Holiday HOU
6%
10 Tobias Harris DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.5 4.6 8.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.2 8.1 8.1
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.0 5.0 4.7
4 Kevin Durant HOU 20.9 5.6 2.7
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.1 4.6 1.5
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.8 4.1 3.5
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 6.4 1.6
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.0 5.6 2.7
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 12.4 1.9 3.9
10 Josh Okogie HOU 10.9 3.4 1.4
11 Ronald Holland II DET 10.3 3.2 2.8
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.1 6.3 3.3
13 Tari Eason HOU 9.8 4.0 1.6
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.8 2.6 2.7
15 JD Davison HOU 9.0 2.4 2.8
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.3 4.4 0.8
17 Steven Adams HOU 8.0 8.0 2.0
18 Duncan Robinson DET 6.8 2.5 1.7
19 Chaz Lanier DET 6.1 1.2 1.3
20 Clint Capela HOU 5.7 4.2 0.8
21 Paul Reed DET 5.4 4.3 1.2
22 Jeff Green HOU 5.4 3.5 0.8
23 Bobi Klintman DET 4.0 1.9 1.0
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.8 4.1 0.6
25 Javonte Green DET 3.6 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.