NBA games

MIL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
122116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27253436122
TOR19353230116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (TOR) / 5 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 31 20 7
Cole Anthony 27 23 4 7
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 20 2 4
Ryan Rollins S 30 13 5 2
Bobby Portis 21 11 8 0
AJ Green S 26 9 1 0
Kyle Kuzma 18 8 3 0
Myles Turner S 28 4 5 2
Taurean Prince 21 3 3 3
Amir Coffey 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 29 6 3
RJ Barrett S 33 20 6 2
Immanuel Quickley S 37 19 7 8
Scottie Barnes S 36 17 5 3
Jamison Battle 11 9 2 0
Jakob Poeltl S 27 6 5 2
Gradey Dick 18 5 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 4 3 1
Jamal Shead 12 4 0 4
Ochai Agbaji 12 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 8-foot two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
16%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
13%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.1 12.6 4.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 20.9 5.0 3.8
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.9 6.4 3.6
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 16.8 8.8 5.2
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.0 3.5 5.7
6 Gradey Dick TOR 12.0 3.8 1.4
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.6 8.8 1.6
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.1 2.2 1.6
9 Ryan Rollins MIL 10.0 3.0 2.3
10 AJ Green MIL 9.9 3.4 1.7
11 Myles Turner MIL 9.5 4.3 1.5
12 Kyle Kuzma MIL 9.5 5.9 1.9
13 Cole Anthony MIL 9.3 3.1 3.7
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.0 5.9 2.1
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.3 2.0 4.5
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.7 3.7 0.9
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.4 2.2 2.0
18 Taurean Prince MIL 6.1 1.8 0.9
19 Bobby Portis MIL 6.0 3.9 1.0
20 Jamison Battle TOR 5.5 1.9 0.8
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.5 3.2 1.0
22 Amir Coffey MIL 4.2 1.7 0.8
23 Gary Harris MIL 3.5 1.5 1.1
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.3 2.0 0.6
25 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 2.4 0.9
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.1 1.9 0.5
27 Mark Sears MIL 2.5 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.