NBA games

CLE @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
131–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34294523131
BKN23283538124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (BKN) / 5 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BKN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 35 2 5
Sam Merrill S 26 22 1 5
Jarrett Allen S 30 22 7 4
Craig Porter Jr. 14 14 2 2
Evan Mobley S 34 13 8 5
Larry Nance Jr. 16 9 3 1
Jaylon Tyson S 23 8 4 1
Dean Wade 27 6 6 1
Lonzo Ball 23 2 2 8
Tyrese Proctor 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 33 2 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 31 8 3
Ziaire Williams 27 25 2 0
Nic Claxton S 31 10 9 4
Egor Demin 25 9 6 4
Noah Clowney 20 5 5 3
Terance Mann S 24 4 1 2
Tyrese Martin 9 3 3 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 2 2 3
Ben Saraf S 18 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 6-foot two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
7 Ben Saraf BKN
9%
8 Terance Mann BKN
9%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
10 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
19%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.3 3.9 4.4
2 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 6.7 3.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 19.1 5.6 3.4
4 Cam Thomas BKN 14.9 3.2 3.9
5 Nic Claxton BKN 12.8 8.4 3.0
6 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.0 2.7 1.2
7 Terance Mann BKN 8.9 2.7 1.2
8 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.9 5.6 1.8
9 Tyrese Proctor CLE 8.5 1.5 2.7
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 8.1 3.2 2.7
11 Noah Clowney BKN 8.1 3.0 1.3
12 Ben Saraf BKN 8.0 2.9 4.9
13 Jarrett Allen CLE 7.7 5.3 1.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.5 3.3 1.5
15 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 7.0 4.5 1.8
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.6 3.1 2.2
17 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.4 3.0 1.8
18 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.2 2.8 4.6
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.8 1.7 0.8
20 Nolan Traore BKN 5.7 1.6 1.7
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.1 1.5 0.5
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.7 1.5 0.9
23 Luke Travers CLE 3.5 1.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.