NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25262733111
ORL24372521107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (ORL) / 5 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 25 1 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 19 1 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 17 4 3
Mouhamed Gueye 30 13 8 3
Jalen Johnson S 26 12 8 1
Luke Kennard 23 6 3 2
Dyson Daniels S 32 6 9 4
Asa Newell 4 5 0 0
Vit Krejci 14 5 2 1
Keaton Wallace 11 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 27 6 2
Tristan da Silva 24 15 6 3
Desmond Bane S 33 15 7 5
Jalen Suggs S 19 11 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 36 11 6 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 10 8 2
Anthony Black 21 8 3 2
Tyus Jones 20 4 1 2
Goga Bitadze 17 3 5 0
Jett Howard 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
19%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
17%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
5 Trae Young ATL
12%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
0%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
0%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 20.5 4.0 4.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.1 6.3 3.7
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 18.4 7.9 2.0
4 Trae Young ATL 15.8 3.4 6.8
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 14.4 3.4 3.3
6 Desmond Bane ORL 14.3 4.0 2.7
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.6 7.6 2.2
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.5 4.9 1.2
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.8 3.1 1.7
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.5 2.8 3.4
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 8.5 4.5 2.9
12 Jase Richardson ORL 8.4 2.7 2.0
13 Jacob Toppin ATL 8.1 2.5 1.7
14 Luke Kennard ATL 7.8 2.9 2.3
15 Jett Howard ORL 7.5 2.2 1.7
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.8 7.0 1.1
17 Asa Newell ATL 5.9 3.7 0.8
18 Caleb Houstan ATL 5.6 1.3 0.5
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.4 1.6 3.5
20 Tyus Jones ORL 5.2 2.0 2.3
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.1 3.8 0.6
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.7 2.6 0.5
23 Vit Krejci ATL 4.3 1.7 0.5
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.8 2.2 1.2
25 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.5 5.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.