NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33243130118
POR35263419114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (POR) / 6 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 41 7 1
Julius Randle S 37 19 7 6
Jaden McDaniels S 29 18 5 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 25 10 5 5
Rudy Gobert S 32 10 6 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 20 7 4 2
Naz Reid 20 6 3 1
Mike Conley 13 3 2 0
Jaylen Clark 16 2 4 3
Bones Hyland 8 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant 28 29 3 1
Deni Avdija S 33 20 7 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 15 2 4
Jrue Holiday S 33 14 6 7
Toumani Camara S 35 10 9 5
Donovan Clingan S 30 8 6 1
Kris Murray 19 7 0 0
Blake Wesley 15 7 3 4
Yang Hansen 5 2 1 0
Matisse Thybulle 14 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
2 Julius Randle MIN
9%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
8%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
6 Deni Avdija POR
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
9 Joan Beringer MIN
6%
10 Johnny Juzang MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 20.8 4.5 3.0
2 Julius Randle MIN 19.1 6.1 2.6
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.8 4.8 2.3
4 Jerami Grant POR 16.6 4.9 1.4
5 Leonard Miller MIN 14.1 6.5 2.2
6 Jrue Holiday POR 14.1 3.9 5.4
7 Deni Avdija POR 13.5 5.6 2.7
8 Rob Dillingham MIN 13.3 2.5 6.0
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 12.8 3.8 4.0
10 Johnny Juzang MIN 11.6 4.0 1.1
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.4 7.0 1.4
12 Yang Hansen POR 7.5 3.4 1.1
13 Joan Beringer MIN 7.2 5.3 0.6
14 Naz Reid MIN 7.0 2.6 0.7
15 Bones Hyland MIN 6.8 2.3 2.0
16 Donovan Clingan POR 6.6 8.4 0.9
17 Kris Murray POR 6.5 3.9 1.1
18 Jaden McDaniels MIN 6.4 3.3 1.1
19 Blake Wesley POR 6.1 2.8 2.3
20 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 5.6 2.9 2.1
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.3 1.7 0.6
22 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 2.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.