NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29422124116
PHX19353630120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (PHX) / 4 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 30 2 1
DeMar DeRozan S 37 29 6 9
Malik Monk 27 19 1 2
Dennis Schroder S 30 14 1 7
Keon Ellis 13 9 1 0
Russell Westbrook 19 6 6 1
Drew Eubanks S 22 4 4 0
Dylan Cardwell 15 3 1 0
Nique Clifford S 24 2 8 2
Maxime Raynaud 11 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 31 5 3
Dillon Brooks S 34 22 4 3
Grayson Allen S 36 18 5 7
Royce O'Neale 29 12 5 2
Ryan Dunn S 25 9 10 3
Nick Richards 5 8 3 0
Oso Ighodaro S 19 7 4 1
Collin Gillespie 22 7 2 4
Mark Williams 24 6 11 0
Nigel Hayes-Davis 10 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Oso Ighodaro · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Oso Ighodaro makes 2-foot dunk (Grayson Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
2 Nique Clifford SAC
8%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
8%
4 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
5 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
6 Devin Booker PHX
8%
7 Drew Eubanks SAC
7%
8 Khaman Maluach PHX
7%
9 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
71%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
4%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 22.4 3.2 5.8
2 Nique Clifford SAC 16.4 4.2 4.4
3 Zach LaVine SAC 16.1 3.5 3.5
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 12.6 2.3 2.4
5 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.8 3.2 2.4
6 Grayson Allen PHX 10.5 3.0 2.0
7 DeMar DeRozan SAC 9.7 3.1 1.8
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.3 5.4 1.7
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 9.2 3.0 1.5
10 Khaman Maluach PHX 7.7 4.5 0.9
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.4 3.5 2.1
12 Nick Richards PHX 7.1 3.6 0.7
13 Dario Saric SAC 6.4 2.5 0.5
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.3 2.8 2.8
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.6 4.3 1.5
16 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.3 3.6 1.0
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.1 1.0 0.7
18 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.9 3.0 0.9
19 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.2 3.2 0.6
20 Isaiah Stevens SAC 4.2 1.0 1.5
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.2 1.7 1.3
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.1 2.1 0.4
23 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.3 4.4 0.4
24 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 3.1 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.