NBA games

WSH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
120–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH23303730120
MIL40322932133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (MIL) / 3 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIL
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 29 23 6 3
Kyshawn George S 32 21 9 4
Tre Johnson 26 16 5 2
Cam Whitmore 19 14 5 1
Corey Kispert 18 11 1 1
Bub Carrington S 29 11 5 2
Alex Sarr S 26 10 11 3
CJ McCollum S 29 9 6 3
Anthony Gill 2 2 0 0
Will Riley 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 27 37 14 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 24 17 4 2
Kyle Kuzma 23 12 4 3
Taurean Prince 22 11 1 2
Myles Turner S 29 11 8 5
AJ Green S 27 11 3 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 9 10 0 2
Cole Anthony 12 9 2 5
Ryan Rollins 29 9 4 3
Amir Coffey 13 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyshawn George WSH
21%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
15%
3 Myles Turner MIL
14%
4 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
13%
5 Bobby Portis MIL
13%
6 AJ Green MIL
11%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
11%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
0%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
0%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
47%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyshawn George WSH 14.2 5.5 2.2
2 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.3 8.2 2.0
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.5 2.2 4.0
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 9.1 2.4 1.7
5 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.9 1.6
6 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.6 2.8 1.4
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.3 1.4 1.3
8 Cole Anthony MIL 8.3 2.6 3.3
9 Will Riley WSH 7.9 1.7 1.5
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 7.8 5.6 1.5
11 Myles Turner MIL 7.5 2.7 0.7
12 Tre Johnson WSH 7.0 3.9 1.7
13 Corey Kispert WSH 6.9 3.3 1.7
14 Bobby Portis MIL 5.2 3.3 0.7
15 Bub Carrington WSH 4.6 1.5 1.6
16 Taurean Prince MIL 3.9 1.1 0.6
17 Amir Coffey MIL 2.8 1.0 0.5
18 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.2 0.4
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.6 0.4
20 Jericho Sims MIL 2.3 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.