NBA games

NO @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
122128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30372233122
MEM27294131128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MEM) / 4 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MEM
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 27 9 5
Jeremiah Fears 18 17 0 2
Jordan Poole S 31 17 0 2
Herbert Jones S 36 17 9 3
Trey Murphy III S 32 13 7 3
Saddiq Bey 30 13 6 3
Jordan Hawkins 17 8 4 1
Yves Missi S 23 5 7 1
Derik Queen 15 3 5 0
Hunter Dickinson 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 29 35 3 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 18 8 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 15 4 3
Jaylen Wells S 28 14 3 4
Cedric Coward 22 14 3 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 15 10 5 0
Jock Landale S 25 10 4 0
Cam Spencer 12 7 0 2
Santi Aldama 24 5 6 2
John Konchar 8 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole NO
17%
2 Zion Williamson NO
17%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
15%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
14%
5 Yves Missi NO
13%
6 Jock Landale MEM
12%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
11%
8 Saddiq Bey NO
0%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
10 Jeremiah Fears NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.9 4.5 3.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 15.7 4.5 1.9
3 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.4 2.3 2.4
4 Jordan Poole NO 15.3 2.7 3.2
5 Zion Williamson NO 14.2 6.0 4.9
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 12.6 3.6 2.6
7 Saddiq Bey NO 12.4 4.4 2.2
8 Javon Small MEM 12.2 2.3 5.5
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.9 2.6 1.3
10 Cedric Coward MEM 9.4 3.4 1.5
11 Jock Landale MEM 9.2 5.2 1.0
12 Santi Aldama MEM 8.8 5.9 1.7
13 Yves Missi NO 8.3 8.6 1.0
14 Cam Spencer MEM 7.4 1.5 2.7
15 GG Jackson MEM 6.7 2.5 0.7
16 Micah Peavy NO 6.4 2.6 1.4
17 Hunter Dickinson NO 6.0 4.0 1.3
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.3 3.0 1.5
19 Jose Alvarado NO 5.1 1.9 2.1
20 PJ Hall MEM 5.0 3.7 0.6
21 John Konchar MEM 3.6 3.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.