NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET19303032111
CHI35293021115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CHI) / 4 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 23 7 10
Isaiah Stewart 25 20 10 2
Ronald Holland II 27 19 4 3
Jalen Duren S 20 15 6 1
Ausar Thompson S 33 11 9 7
Tobias Harris S 34 10 9 4
Caris LeVert 21 8 1 2
Paul Reed 3 3 0 0
Duncan Robinson S 32 2 0 0
Javonte Green 10 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 33 28 14 2
Matas Buzelis S 34 21 6 1
Josh Giddey S 29 19 5 11
Kevin Huerter 27 15 5 0
Ayo Dosunmu 27 14 5 2
Tre Jones S 32 12 1 8
Patrick Williams 17 4 4 0
Jalen Smith 14 2 5 1
Dalen Terry 6 0 0 0
Isaac Okoro S 23 0 5 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 5-foot layup (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Matas Buzelis CHI
13%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
3 Tobias Harris DET
10%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
7 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
9%
9 Tre Jones CHI
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.5 4.3 7.6
2 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.0 4.3 1.5
3 Josh Giddey CHI 16.2 6.4 6.1
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.5 3.4 1.9
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.2 4.8 2.1
6 Daniss Jenkins DET 12.8 2.1 4.1
7 Tre Jones CHI 9.6 3.2 4.7
8 Jevon Carter CHI 9.5 1.7 1.7
9 Patrick Williams CHI 9.1 3.0 3.3
10 Ronald Holland II DET 8.4 2.6 2.4
11 Nikola Vucevic CHI 8.4 7.7 2.4
12 Ausar Thompson DET 8.1 5.5 2.1
13 Duncan Robinson DET 6.9 2.7 1.7
14 Chaz Lanier DET 6.6 1.4 1.3
15 Paul Reed DET 5.7 6.1 1.3
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.6 2.9 0.6
17 Jalen Smith CHI 5.4 4.0 1.1
18 Isaac Okoro CHI 5.0 1.8 1.3
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 3.1 2.7
20 Bobi Klintman DET 4.3 2.2 1.0
21 Tolu Smith DET 4.0 4.4 0.7
22 Javonte Green DET 3.6 1.8 0.5
23 Noa Essengue CHI 3.4 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.