NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26311842117
BOS28233530116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (BOS) / 4 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 40 2 6
VJ Edgecombe S 42 34 7 3
Dominick Barlow S 34 13 8 5
Quentin Grimes 32 10 5 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 10 4 1
Jabari Walker 19 6 4 0
Joel Embiid S 20 4 6 2
Andre Drummond 3 0 1 0
Adem Bona 15 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 25 6 4
Derrick White S 35 25 3 4
Neemias Queta S 25 17 8 0
Payton Pritchard S 37 16 5 2
Anfernee Simons 32 13 4 1
Sam Hauser S 22 8 2 1
Chris Boucher 16 6 4 1
Xavier Tillman 16 4 7 1
Josh Minott 14 2 2 2
Luka Garza 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 7-foot layup (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
14%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
7 Chris Boucher BOS
10%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
9 Adem Bona PHI
9%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
14%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Derrick White BOS 23.9 6.5 6.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.6 3.6 4.1
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.8 5.1 3.6
4 Anfernee Simons BOS 18.4 3.4 2.8
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.5 4.1 4.5
6 Josh Minott BOS 11.0 5.7 1.2
7 Jaylen Brown BOS 10.8 2.9 1.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 9.2 4.2 1.9
9 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.2 6.0 0.7
10 Chris Boucher BOS 8.2 5.4 0.7
11 Jabari Walker PHI 8.0 3.6 1.0
12 Luka Garza BOS 7.0 5.1 0.6
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.9 3.3 2.4
14 Neemias Queta BOS 5.5 6.9 0.8
15 Justin Edwards PHI 5.3 3.4 2.1
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.9 2.7 0.7
17 Adem Bona PHI 4.5 3.8 0.4
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.4 4.9 0.6
19 Johni Broome PHI 4.4 2.7 0.4
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.3 3.2 1.3
21 Max Shulga BOS 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.