NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
138–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR36294528138
ATL34252831118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (ATL) / 6 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 30 25 8 5
Scottie Barnes S 32 22 6 9
Gradey Dick 24 21 5 0
Brandon Ingram S 27 16 9 3
Jakob Poeltl S 22 14 6 2
Immanuel Quickley S 29 13 4 8
Jamal Shead 19 10 2 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 7 4 3
Jonathan Mogbo 11 4 4 0
Ochai Agbaji 20 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 22 7 8
Trae Young S 34 22 1 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 20 7 2
Onyeka Okongwu 30 18 6 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 16 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 10 4 4
Luke Kennard 30 6 4 3
Dyson Daniels S 23 4 3 2
Mouhamed Gueye 5 0 0 0
Keaton Wallace 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
14%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
14%
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
14%
6 Trae Young ATL
12%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Jamison Battle TOR
0%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
33%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.2 5.2 3.3
2 RJ Barrett TOR 18.7 4.3 3.2
3 Trae Young ATL 17.6 3.5 7.7
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 16.4 4.5 2.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 14.8 7.0 1.9
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 14.4 8.5 4.2
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.1 2.9 4.9
8 Gradey Dick TOR 9.9 3.0 1.2
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.1 4.2 0.9
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.3 5.8 1.7
11 Asa Newell ATL 6.9 4.1 0.8
12 Luke Kennard ATL 6.6 2.2 1.6
13 Jamal Shead TOR 6.0 1.5 4.1
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.6 3.4 0.7
15 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.6 1.6 4.2
16 Vit Krejci ATL 4.8 1.8 0.5
17 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.4 2.6 0.9
18 N'Faly Dante ATL 4.3 6.0 0.4
19 Jamison Battle TOR 3.9 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.