NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
121–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA39262630121
ORL38312135125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (ORL) / 6 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 36 28 9 4
Andrew Wiggins S 32 18 4 1
Davion Mitchell S 35 16 6 12
Bam Adebayo S 34 15 12 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 13 6 1
Simone Fontecchio 19 13 2 1
Nikola Jovic S 23 9 3 0
Kel'el Ware 14 7 4 0
Dru Smith 13 2 1 5
Pelle Larsson 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 24 11 1
Franz Wagner S 36 24 4 6
Desmond Bane S 33 23 4 3
Tristan da Silva 18 16 1 0
Jalen Suggs S 17 14 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 9 8 1
Goga Bitadze 19 8 8 4
Anthony Black 23 7 3 3
Tyus Jones 24 0 2 3
Jonathan Isaac 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
11%
2 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
8 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
23%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 17.2 3.4 3.0
2 Kel'el Ware MIA 17.1 10.0 1.4
3 Norman Powell MIA 16.6 2.8 2.7
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.3 7.0 2.3
5 Paolo Banchero ORL 14.1 6.4 2.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 10.7 6.3 1.9
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.6 2.8 2.7
8 Anthony Black ORL 9.3 2.2 3.7
9 Desmond Bane ORL 9.2 3.0 1.9
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.2 2.9 1.7
11 Jase Richardson ORL 8.2 2.8 2.1
12 Jett Howard ORL 7.6 2.2 1.8
13 Andrew Wiggins MIA 7.5 1.7 1.3
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 6.4 1.5 1.4
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.3 3.6 3.0
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.2 3.2 1.2
17 Keshad Johnson MIA 6.0 3.3 2.5
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.9 1.7 2.1
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.4 6.5 0.7
20 Myron Gardner MIA 5.2 3.8 0.7
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.7 3.7 0.5
22 Tyus Jones ORL 4.4 1.1 1.9
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.4 2.6 0.6
24 Dru Smith MIA 3.7 1.6 0.7
25 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.0 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.