NBA games

BKN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
117–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN32283720117
CHA38393425136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CHA) / 4 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHA
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nic Claxton S 23 17 4 2
Cam Thomas S 24 15 1 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 14 4 0
Egor Demin 22 14 5 2
Terance Mann S 19 13 1 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 12 4 5
Jalen Wilson 15 8 0 0
Ben Saraf S 20 8 7 4
Tyrese Martin 26 5 3 5
Noah Clowney 20 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 31 25 0 7
LaMelo Ball S 34 20 2 8
Miles Bridges S 31 18 11 4
Collin Sexton 17 15 1 3
Moussa Diabate 21 13 9 0
Tre Mann 21 12 3 6
Kon Knueppel S 25 11 5 1
Tidjane Salaun 17 10 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 27 10 11 1
Sion James 17 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
7 Collin Sexton CHA
8%
8 Liam McNeeley CHA
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
42%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.3 3.8 5.6
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 20.1 5.6 3.1
3 Miles Bridges CHA 17.5 7.4 2.4
4 Collin Sexton CHA 15.8 2.3 5.0
5 Brandon Miller CHA 15.6 2.0 3.9
6 Cam Thomas BKN 14.5 3.0 4.3
7 Kon Knueppel CHA 12.2 3.3 2.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 11.1 8.3 3.2
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.1 2.3 1.1
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.7 6.1 1.0
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.2 6.1 0.8
12 Danny Wolf BKN 7.9 3.7 3.8
13 Ben Saraf BKN 7.5 1.9 5.4
14 Terance Mann BKN 7.4 2.2 1.0
15 Noah Clowney BKN 7.2 2.5 0.9
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.0 5.3 2.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.5 5.4 1.3
18 Tre Mann CHA 6.5 2.1 1.7
19 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.8 2.0 1.6
20 Nolan Traore BKN 5.0 1.3 2.1
21 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.9 2.5 0.9
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.4 1.5 0.7
23 Drake Powell BKN 4.0 1.3 1.1
24 Sion James CHA 2.9 1.6 0.7
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.5 1.1 0.4
26 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.9 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.