NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
113–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30313319113
NY28313035124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 28 21 7 0
Victor Wembanyama 25 18 6 1
De'Aaron Fox S 32 16 2 9
Stephon Castle S 35 15 7 12
Luke Kornet S 23 14 6 1
Devin Vassell S 33 12 5 3
Harrison Barnes S 23 11 3 2
Keldon Johnson 16 3 4 0
Julian Champagnie 25 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 40 28 9 3
Jalen Brunson S 41 25 4 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 16 11 1
Jordan Clarkson 27 15 2 0
Tyler Kolek 20 14 5 5
Mikal Bridges S 33 11 5 5
Josh Hart S 29 11 8 3
Mitchell Robinson 18 4 15 2
Ariel Hukporti 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bismack Biyombo SA
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
76%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
11%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.6 3.3 6.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.7 10.7 3.5
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 24.2 4.1 6.1
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.2 11.4 4.3
5 Stephon Castle SA 20.2 5.9 7.5
6 Josh Hart NY 18.0 9.0 6.1
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 4.7 3.5
8 Devin Vassell SA 16.8 4.1 2.6
9 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 5.1 2.1
10 Harrison Barnes SA 12.9 3.7 2.5
11 Keldon Johnson SA 12.1 6.3 1.7
12 Dylan Harper SA 11.9 2.8 3.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 6.5 1.5
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.6 2.4 1.6
15 Luke Kornet SA 6.9 6.3 1.8
16 Tyler Kolek NY 5.1 1.6 2.4
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.5 7.6 1.1
18 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.2 2.9 0.9
19 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 4.2 2.0 1.4
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.9 1.7 0.8
21 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.5 2.0 0.7
22 Trey Jemison III NY 2.7 2.2 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 0.7 0.9
24 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.6 0.8 0.5
25 Carter Bryant SA 2.2 1.5 0.3
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.0 1.1 0.4
27 Lindy Waters III SA 1.9 0.9 0.4
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.8 2.4 0.4
29 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.6 0.9 0.6
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.1 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.