NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
111–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA20263233111
OKC31182832109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 32 23 5 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 22 2 4
Victor Wembanyama 21 22 9 2
Stephon Castle S 34 22 6 2
Dylan Harper 25 8 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 27 6 4 5
Keldon Johnson 14 3 6 0
Julian Champagnie 27 3 8 2
Luke Kornet S 24 2 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 29 4 5
Chet Holmgren S 30 17 7 0
Jalen Williams S 33 17 7 4
Alex Caruso 24 11 8 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 10 9 1
Ajay Mitchell 24 9 6 4
Cason Wallace 27 7 3 1
Jaylin Williams 11 6 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 22 3 3 2
Aaron Wiggins 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
2 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
3 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Stephon Castle SA
8%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
8 Victor Wembanyama SA
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Devin Vassell SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 4.4 6.9
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 24.8 4.5 6.5
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.9 12.3 4.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.6 5.6 6.7
5 Stephon Castle SA 20.1 6.1 7.8
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.8 7.7 2.3
7 Devin Vassell SA 16.1 4.2 2.4
8 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 6.5 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 14.0 4.0 2.2
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.0 10.3 3.3
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.9 3.4 2.6
12 Dylan Harper SA 12.4 2.9 3.4
13 Julian Champagnie SA 12.2 6.4 1.9
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 11.9 2.8 3.6
15 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 3.2 2.1
16 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 3.1 1.2
17 Luke Kornet SA 7.2 5.9 2.0
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.4 4.4 2.6
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.9 2.5 2.3
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.6 1.5 1.2
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.4 1.7
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.8 2.2 1.1
23 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.6 3.2 0.9
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.2 1.1
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.8 1.5 0.7
26 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.3 0.6
27 Carter Bryant SA 2.4 1.6 0.3
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.