NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA T-Mobile Arena ·Final
132–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33382932132
ORL36282828120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 40 4 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 29 8 2
OG Anunoby S 40 24 6 4
Mikal Bridges S 43 16 3 3
Josh Hart S 31 12 6 6
Mitchell Robinson 17 5 9 0
Tyler Kolek 16 4 3 4
Jordan Clarkson 13 2 0 1
Guerschon Yabusele 4 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 29 26 2 7
Paolo Banchero S 35 25 8 3
Desmond Bane S 37 18 6 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 14 6 2
Anthony Black S 37 12 8 4
Jase Richardson 8 9 1 2
Jett Howard 15 8 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 10 5 4 0
Tyus Jones 10 3 0 1
Goga Bitadze 13 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Anthony Black ORL
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
10%
9 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.7 3.1 6.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.9 10.4 3.7
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.4 4.5 4.7
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.0 6.9 4.3
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.3 4.1 5.2
6 Mikal Bridges NY 18.3 5.1 3.4
7 Josh Hart NY 17.6 8.5 5.3
8 Anthony Black ORL 16.5 5.0 4.7
9 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 4.9 2.0
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 7.1 2.0
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.8 2.5 1.9
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.8 3.6 1.5
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 5.3 1.5
14 Jett Howard ORL 5.4 1.2 0.7
15 Tyler Kolek NY 4.7 1.5 1.9
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.4 7.2 1.2
17 Tyus Jones ORL 4.2 1.0 2.3
18 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.6 1.9 0.6
19 Jase Richardson ORL 3.3 1.0 0.7
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.1 2.8 0.9
21 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.0 1.1 0.6
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 3.2 0.4
23 Jamal Cain ORL 2.7 0.9 0.3
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.5 0.5
25 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.1 1.2 0.4
26 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.1 1.1 0.7
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.