NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
132–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA39313428132
LAL30282932119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 27 30 10 6
De'Aaron Fox S 31 20 4 3
Keldon Johnson 22 17 8 0
Harrison Barnes S 33 16 3 1
Julian Champagnie 29 16 7 2
Dylan Harper 20 13 3 3
Luke Kornet S 33 10 8 1
Devin Vassell S 31 8 4 5
Kelly Olynyk 12 2 2 4
Jordan McLaughlin 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 35 5 8
Marcus Smart 28 26 3 1
LeBron James S 36 19 15 8
Austin Reaves S 40 15 8 7
Deandre Ayton S 26 11 8 1
Rui Hachimura S 31 8 1 1
Dalton Knecht 1 3 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 12 2 3 0
Adou Thiero 1 0 0 0
Bronny James 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"LeBron James makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
4 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 De'Aaron Fox SA
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Luke Kornet SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
6%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.9 8.7 9.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.8 5.8 6.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 26.2 4.3 7.0
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 6.3 8.7
5 LeBron James LAL 19.0 5.0 7.6
6 Devin Vassell SA 16.8 4.2 2.6
7 Keldon Johnson SA 15.9 6.6 2.2
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 15.7 10.5 1.5
9 Harrison Barnes SA 15.4 4.1 2.5
10 Dylan Harper SA 12.9 3.1 3.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 5.7 1.9
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.5 3.8 1.1
13 Marcus Smart LAL 9.6 2.5 3.1
14 Luke Kornet SA 7.7 6.5 2.2
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.6 3.2 1.3
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.1 1.4 1.5
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 4.2 0.9
18 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.8 3.5 1.2
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 5.3 2.5 1.5
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.6 1.9 0.6
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.4 3.8 1.3
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.8 1.2 1.3
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.1 0.6
24 Bronny James LAL 2.8 0.9 1.4
25 Lindy Waters III SA 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Adou Thiero LAL 2.2 1.1 0.5
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.