NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
89–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2325241789
OKC38363628138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 26 16 2 1
Jordan Goodwin 19 15 3 1
Jamaree Bouyea 28 14 2 6
Grayson Allen S 22 10 1 4
Mark Williams S 19 9 5 1
Rasheer Fleming 10 7 0 0
Oso Ighodaro 19 6 5 3
Ryan Dunn 16 4 2 2
Royce O'Neale S 26 4 4 1
Khaman Maluach 10 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 27 28 2 8
Chet Holmgren S 25 24 8 2
Jalen Williams S 23 15 5 5
Luguentz Dort S 22 12 4 1
Ousmane Dieng 12 11 3 0
Branden Carlson 12 11 2 0
Ajay Mitchell 19 9 2 4
Cason Wallace S 19 9 4 2
Aaron Wiggins 22 6 3 1
Kenrich Williams 17 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC
7%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
6%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 4.4 6.7
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.8 3.6 2.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.2 5.6 6.3
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.2 7.9 1.9
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.6 3.8 4.9
6 Grayson Allen PHX 17.2 3.1 3.5
7 Mark Williams PHX 14.1 7.9 1.8
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.3 3.4 2.5
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.0 2.8 3.3
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.4 4.7 2.0
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.1 4.6 2.6
12 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 3.1 2.1
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.5 2.6 0.9
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.3 4.1 1.7
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.2 4.2 2.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.5 1.7
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.8 3.8 1.9
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 1.6 1.1
19 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.3 1.4 1.0
20 Branden Carlson OKC 5.3 2.7 0.9
21 Alex Caruso OKC 4.5 2.1 2.1
22 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Nick Richards PHX 2.5 2.6 0.4
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 1.9 1.3 0.3
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.5 0.9 0.3
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.