NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
117–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35342523117
TOR39132722101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 35 3 4
Josh Hart S 36 21 6 4
Mikal Bridges S 36 15 5 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 14 16 1
OG Anunoby S 36 13 6 1
Jordan Clarkson 26 12 3 0
Kevin McCullar Jr. 1 3 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 2 5 4
Tyler Kolek 8 2 1 1
Tosan Evbuomwan 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 39 31 6 6
Jamal Shead S 34 18 3 8
Scottie Barnes S 37 13 5 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 13 1 0
Jakob Poeltl S 25 10 9 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 22 6 5 3
Ochai Agbaji S 26 3 4 1
Jonathan Mogbo 2 3 1 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 2 2 1
A.J. Lawson 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 20-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
39%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.1 6.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.8 10.4 3.8
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.1 6.1 4.0
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 7.9 5.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.5 5.1 3.5
6 Josh Hart NY 17.4 8.9 5.3
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 4.4 2.2
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.1 5.5 1.5
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.9 8.2 2.4
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.4 2.6 1.9
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.3 2.9 1.3
12 Jamal Shead TOR 6.5 2.0 4.6
13 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 6.1 2.8 2.0
14 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.6 2.4 1.3
15 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.6 0.9
16 Tyler Kolek NY 5.2 1.4 1.9
17 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.7 1.9 0.6
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.6 7.3 1.1
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.2 2.0 0.7
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.0 1.7 0.7
21 Chucky Hepburn TOR 3.6 0.6 1.6
22 Alijah Martin TOR 3.6 1.7 0.7
23 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.4 1.5 0.7
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.6 0.5
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.3 1.2 0.8
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.8 0.3
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.4 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.