NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
108–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA30272625108
ORL17393328117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 34 21 7 2
Tyler Herro S 34 20 7 3
Bam Adebayo S 36 19 8 2
Andrew Wiggins S 35 19 2 2
Davion Mitchell S 37 11 2 9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 10 3 3
Kel'el Ware 12 4 6 0
Dru Smith 8 2 2 1
Pelle Larsson 11 2 2 1
Simone Fontecchio 8 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 37 6 5
Jalen Suggs S 31 20 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 32 18 7 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 14 10 3
Tristan da Silva 28 11 7 2
Anthony Black S 34 10 3 7
Goga Bitadze 17 7 6 1
Tyus Jones 17 0 2 4
Jonathan Isaac 12 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 18-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
2 Norman Powell MIA
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
21%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.4 3.9 2.8
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 4.8 2.6
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.1 4.7 5.1
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.0 7.8 5.1
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.8 9.9 2.6
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.5 4.6 5.7
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 17.7 6.0 3.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 17.7 5.2 4.5
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.4 4.6 4.8
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.1 10.0 1.0
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.5 7.5 2.2
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.4 2.8 6.9
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.9 3.9 1.7
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.6 2.8 3.5
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.3 3.4 2.0
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.5 3.7 2.8
17 Jett Howard ORL 6.8 1.9 1.0
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.5 3.4 2.0
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.3 5.5 1.6
20 Tyus Jones ORL 5.3 1.4 2.5
21 Jahmir Young MIA 5.0 1.3 1.3
22 Jase Richardson ORL 4.6 1.7 1.0
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.5 3.6 1.2
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 3.8 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.8 2.9 0.5
26 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 3.7 1.0 2.7
27 Myron Gardner MIA 3.1 2.4 0.4
28 Jamal Cain ORL 3.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.