NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
112–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM24262834112
LAC35281826107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 24 2 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 23 16 1 5
Santi Aldama 22 13 7 5
Jaylen Wells S 28 13 6 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 12 4 1
Jock Landale 16 12 6 0
Cam Spencer 25 10 2 4
Cedric Coward S 31 7 4 1
Zach Edey S 32 5 19 2
John Konchar 11 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 39 3 0
James Harden S 40 23 7 11
Kris Dunn S 30 11 7 1
John Collins S 33 10 7 0
Ivica Zubac S 39 9 12 5
Kobe Brown 16 5 0 0
Chris Paul 15 5 2 0
Kobe Sanders 14 3 0 2
Nicolas Batum 23 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 James Harden LAC
15%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Zach Edey MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 John Collins LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 29.7 5.8 8.8
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.5 4.8 3.6
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.4 12.0 3.1
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.6 5.2 2.2
5 Santi Aldama MEM 16.8 6.4 3.3
6 Cedric Coward MEM 13.8 6.1 3.1
7 Zach Edey MEM 12.6 9.1 1.2
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.4 3.2 2.0
9 John Collins LAC 11.7 4.5 1.1
10 Jock Landale MEM 11.1 5.6 1.8
11 Cam Spencer MEM 10.8 2.4 3.4
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.8 2.7 3.2
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.6 5.7 6.2
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.5 2.1 1.5
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.5 2.1 2.3
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.5 3.1 1.0
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.3 2.3 1.0
18 Brook Lopez LAC 4.8 1.6 0.7
19 Chris Paul LAC 4.7 2.0 3.2
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.1 2.7 0.8
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 1.7 1.0
22 GG Jackson MEM 3.5 1.7 0.4
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.3 2.1 0.5
24 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.8 1.1
25 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 2.6 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.