NBA games

DAL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
119–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL22403225119
LAL28323831129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 35 22 9 1
Ryan Nembhard S 23 17 2 4
Naji Marshall 25 16 7 2
Cooper Flagg S 36 13 7 11
Max Christie S 27 13 1 1
Anthony Davis S 28 12 5 5
Brandon Williams 24 11 2 3
Klay Thompson 20 10 1 1
Daniel Gafford 17 5 4 0
Dwight Powell 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 41 38 8 3
Luka Doncic S 40 35 5 11
Deandre Ayton S 36 17 8 2
Rui Hachimura S 36 14 4 0
LeBron James S 34 13 5 7
Gabe Vincent 23 6 0 3
Jaxson Hayes 12 6 2 1
Maxi Kleber 4 0 0 0
Jake LaRavia 14 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
3 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
10 Brandon Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.2 7.6 9.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 26.0 5.4 6.6
3 LeBron James LAL 21.6 5.7 8.6
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 19.2 6.3 3.9
5 Anthony Davis DAL 17.3 7.8 2.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 16.5 6.8 2.2
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 16.5 8.8 1.3
8 Naji Marshall DAL 15.1 5.7 2.5
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.5 4.2 1.4
10 Brandon Williams DAL 14.3 3.6 5.7
11 Max Christie DAL 12.1 4.3 2.0
12 D'Angelo Russell DAL 10.5 2.6 3.9
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.6 2.2 1.3
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.4 6.8 1.4
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.1 3.7 1.9
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.2 1.7 1.9
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.0 2.4 0.8
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.9 3.8 0.8
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.2 1.4 0.7
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.1 4.3 1.2
21 Ryan Nembhard DAL 4.0 1.3 2.9
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.3 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.5 1.7
24 Adou Thiero LAL 3.1 1.4 0.5
25 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.0 4.1 0.4
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.6 1.6 0.4
27 Caleb Martin DAL 1.6 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.