NBA games

SAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
119–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27242246119
UTAH30322838128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home UTAH
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 39 34 2 6
Keegan Murray S 45 23 10 3
Maxime Raynaud 22 19 4 0
Russell Westbrook S 33 16 12 14
DeMar DeRozan S 36 16 2 3
Malik Monk 21 5 2 0
Precious Achiuwa 19 2 6 1
Drew Eubanks S 13 2 4 0
Keon Ellis 7 2 0 0
Nique Clifford 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 36 31 5 6
Lauri Markkanen S 39 28 7 2
Brice Sensabaugh 28 20 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 23 9 3 2
Isaiah Collier 24 9 1 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 9 11 9
Kevin Love 17 9 7 1
Kyle Filipowski 21 8 7 2
Ace Bailey S 17 5 4 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Svi Mykhailiuk · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Svi Mykhailiuk makes two point shot (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
9 Drew Eubanks SAC
8%
10 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.0 4.4 7.1
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.8 5.6 3.0
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.6 3.5 3.8
4 Zach LaVine SAC 17.3 3.7 2.9
5 Keegan Murray SAC 15.8 6.7 1.8
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 14.6 6.6 6.8
7 Ace Bailey UTAH 13.5 4.1 2.5
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.9 2.7 2.6
9 Malik Monk SAC 11.4 2.6 2.1
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.7 3.2 5.7
11 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.2 6.8 2.0
12 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.0 9.9 4.4
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.0 5.5 1.5
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.3 2.5 1.5
15 Kyle Anderson UTAH 6.1 3.0 3.9
16 Drew Eubanks SAC 6.0 4.0 0.9
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.8 2.1 0.9
18 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.6 3.5 0.7
19 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 5.5 1.8 3.1
20 Dario Saric SAC 5.3 2.1 0.8
21 Nique Clifford SAC 5.0 2.4 1.8
22 Kevin Love UTAH 4.9 3.7 1.6
23 Devin Carter SAC 2.3 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.