NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
139–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA41184436139
DEN33413032136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 31 35 3 2
Julian Champagnie S 36 25 10 2
De'Aaron Fox S 34 15 1 12
Keldon Johnson 22 14 8 2
Luke Kornet S 28 12 6 2
Dylan Harper 15 11 0 3
Harrison Barnes S 31 10 3 5
Kelly Olynyk 13 7 1 0
Jeremy Sochan 16 4 1 2
Carter Bryant 6 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 37 4 7
Cameron Johnson S 38 28 6 1
Nikola Jokic S 36 21 9 10
Peyton Watson S 34 15 6 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 15 2 1
Spencer Jones S 23 9 1 3
Zeke Nnaji 14 4 4 0
Jonas Valanciunas 12 4 8 1
Bruce Brown 19 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
11%
6 Luke Kornet SA
9%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
28%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.0 11.5 11.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 25.9 4.4 6.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 4.5 7.3
4 Harrison Barnes SA 14.2 3.9 2.0
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.1 3.8 2.4
6 Peyton Watson DEN 13.1 5.6 1.8
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 7.5 2.3
8 Dylan Harper SA 11.9 3.2 4.0
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.6 4.2 1.7
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.4 3.3 2.2
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.2 2.3 1.4
12 Luke Kornet SA 8.9 6.2 1.8
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.3 1.3
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.8 4.1 0.8
15 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.9 3.4 1.8
16 Kelly Olynyk SA 5.1 2.5 2.1
17 Lindy Waters III SA 4.2 1.5 0.8
18 Curtis Jones DEN 3.9 1.3 1.2
19 David Jones Garcia SA 3.8 1.7 1.4
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 1.7 0.6
21 Spencer Jones DEN 2.8 1.3 0.6
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.4 0.4
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 0.8 0.8
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.5 1.2 0.5
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.