NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
119–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX25273037119
OKC25313829123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Gillespie S 33 24 3 4
Devin Booker S 39 21 8 6
Dillon Brooks S 39 19 3 2
Jordan Goodwin 26 14 5 2
Mark Williams S 22 13 14 0
Royce O'Neale S 29 11 7 1
Jamaree Bouyea 14 9 2 0
Oso Ighodaro 22 6 6 4
Nick Richards 4 2 1 1
Nigel Hayes-Davis 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 37 3 8
Chet Holmgren S 32 23 8 1
Cason Wallace S 32 14 4 3
Jaylin Williams 21 14 4 0
Jalen Williams S 29 11 4 8
Isaiah Joe 24 10 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 30 7 2 0
Alex Caruso 24 4 7 3
Kenrich Williams 7 3 1 1
Ajay Mitchell 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
16%
2 Mark Williams PHX
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
13%
5 Collin Gillespie PHX
10%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
6%
10 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
24%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 4.5 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.9 4.9 6.5
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.3 3.7 2.2
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.8 3.9 4.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.4 7.3 2.0
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 14.5 4.3 4.8
7 Mark Williams PHX 13.2 8.8 1.7
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.7 2.6 1.8
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.1 5.6 2.4
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 4.4 2.1
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 2.4 2.0
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 3.3 1.1
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.4 4.1 2.5
14 Alex Caruso OKC 6.2 2.0 2.4
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.8 3.2 1.5
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.8 1.4 0.7
17 Nick Richards PHX 3.7 3.8 0.5
18 Branden Carlson OKC 3.7 2.0 0.6
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.4 1.6 0.7
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.7 1.5 0.3
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.3 1.5 0.3
22 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.0 0.8 0.4
23 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.