NBA games

MIL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
109–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL37252621109
NY33283126118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 28 30 15 8
Kyle Kuzma 28 20 4 3
AJ Green S 39 18 5 1
Ryan Rollins S 41 13 5 6
Myles Turner S 30 10 3 1
Cole Anthony 7 7 0 2
Gary Harris 24 5 0 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 25 3 0 1
Bobby Portis 18 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 37 1 5
Josh Hart S 40 19 15 7
Miles McBride S 33 19 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 35 14 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 9 10 4
Mitchell Robinson 19 6 7 1
Jordan Clarkson 22 6 4 3
Tyler Kolek 10 5 0 1
Guerschon Yabusele 6 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Myles Turner MIL
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
8 Miles McBride NY
7%
9 Josh Hart NY
6%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
4%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.6 10.1 6.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 3.7 7.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.2 11.7 4.1
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 22.4 4.7 6.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.4 4.2
6 Josh Hart NY 14.7 7.0 5.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.1 5.0 2.6
8 Myles Turner MIL 13.8 6.2 1.7
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.8 5.4 1.5
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.2 2.7 2.0
11 Miles McBride NY 11.1 2.8 2.5
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.5 1.7 1.6
13 AJ Green MIL 9.5 2.8 2.0
14 Cole Anthony MIL 7.1 3.3 4.5
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.8 7.8 0.9
16 Gary Harris MIL 4.2 1.6 1.1
17 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.7 2.1 0.8
18 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.3 1.5
19 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 3.5 1.6 0.8
20 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 2.8 0.9
21 Mark Sears MIL 3.1 0.9 0.6
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.1 1.2
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 2.6 0.7
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.4 1.2 0.7
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.3 0.4
27 Amir Coffey MIL 2.2 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.