NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
86–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2428211386
IND30343025119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 33 24 9 1
Khris Middleton S 26 12 6 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 11 4 2
CJ McCollum S 30 11 1 2
Cam Whitmore 16 8 3 0
Bub Carrington 27 6 7 3
Kyshawn George S 27 5 3 4
Tristan Vukcevic 15 5 1 2
Will Riley 10 4 4 0
Sharife Cooper 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 26 24 11 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 20 2 4
T.J. McConnell 19 14 4 8
Jay Huff S 22 12 6 2
Isaiah Jackson 18 10 2 0
Jarace Walker S 23 10 7 1
Garrison Mathews 22 9 1 0
Ben Sheppard S 29 9 3 5
Tony Bradley 8 5 1 1
Taelon Peter 6 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Jarace Walker IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.0 6.2 5.0
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 23.3 5.8 2.8
3 CJ McCollum WSH 22.8 4.1 3.9
4 Alex Sarr WSH 20.9 9.1 3.6
5 Kyshawn George WSH 18.8 5.2 5.2
6 Jarace Walker IND 11.5 4.5 1.9
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 4.1 3.4
8 Khris Middleton WSH 9.8 4.0 3.5
9 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 3.1 4.0
10 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.8 2.8 1.1
11 Bub Carrington WSH 8.5 3.0 4.4
12 Jay Huff IND 8.5 4.6 1.4
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.5 6.5 1.4
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 3.6 1.7
15 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.0 4.4 1.0
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.9 4.7 1.2
17 Tony Bradley IND 4.6 2.4 0.9
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.4 2.4 1.0
19 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.3 3.3 0.9
20 Garrison Mathews IND 4.2 0.9 0.9
21 RayJ Dennis IND 3.9 1.2 1.2
22 Malaki Branham WSH 3.7 1.4 0.7
23 Will Riley WSH 2.7 1.3 0.9
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 2.6 0.7 0.7
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.4 1.3 1.1
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 1.1 0.3
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.5 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.